A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
