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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still